Ukraine sees fertilizer price growth and supply risks

Fertilizer prices in Ukraine have increased across all major product groups over the past year, raising production costs for agricultural producers, including fruit and vegetable growers. Fertilizers account for about 25% of crop production costs.

The strongest increases were recorded for compound fertilizers. NPK 15:15:15 rose by 23% to €804/t, while NPK 10:26:26 and ammophos 11:52 both increased by 27%, reaching €1,059/t and €1,261/t respectively. Potassium chloride rose by 20% to €593/t.

Among nitrogen fertilizers, urea increased by 16% to €739/t, UAN by 12% to €578/t, and ammonium nitrate by 9% to €600/t.

Only two fertilizer plants are currently operating in Ukraine, in Cherkasy and Rivne. Cherkasy produces urea, ammonium nitrate and UAN, while Rivne produces ammonium nitrate, limestone ammonium nitrate and UAN.

Both plants often operate below capacity and adjust their product mix according to demand, keeping domestic supply limited. However, there is currently no fertilizer shortage, mainly because demand remains weak.

Agricultural companies delayed nitrogen fertilizer purchases during the first half of summer amid seasonal factors and expectations of lower prices. Imports were also limited while global nitrogen fertilizer prices were falling. In July, the decline stopped, and import volumes began to increase.

The main supply risk is currently concentrated in phosphorus-containing fertilizers, as sulfur availability has fallen sharply. Sulfur is an important raw material for NP, NPK and superphosphate production.

Ukraine’s main urea suppliers are Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Ammonium nitrate comes from Poland, Bulgaria, Georgia and Central Asia, while Poland is the main source of UAN. Ammonium sulfate is supplied mainly by China.

Ukraine has not imported Russian-origin fertilizers since 2019 or Belarusian-origin fertilizers since 2022.

Meanwhile, disruptions in Western Asia are affecting global fertilizer markets. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled up to 25% of global ammonia trade, 30% of urea, 20% of phosphate fertilizers, and around 50% of sulfur. Russia has accounted for more than 40% of global ammonium nitrate exports in recent years and 22–30% of UAN exports in 2021–2025.

For Ukrainian growers, the risk is therefore not only the price of fertilizers, but also whether specific products will be available when needed. Disruptions to domestic production, imports, or logistics could quickly turn limited supply into a shortage.

Source: kurkul.com