Return to the Suez Canal purely the result of a shortage of shipping lines' container capacity

The reopening of the Suez Canal will not translate into lower freight costs, according to Marc van Haaren, CCO of Shypple, a Dutch logistics company.

“The return has already begun, and it’s worth looking at why it’s accelerating now,” Marc says. “CMA CGM has already sent its largest ships back through the canal, including a 23,000-container vessel, the first of that size to pass through in two years. Maersk is now testing the route. Hapag-Lloyd is still holding back for the moment. So the return is real, but uneven. This is playing out mainly on the Europe-to-Asia route, where capacity and scheduling pressure is currently at its highest.”

“But here’s the key point: about 2.4 million containers’ worth of capacity is currently tied up due to storms in Asia. Carriers are shifting services back to the Red Sea to recover some of that capacity. The Cape route adds ten to fifteen days to transit times between Asia and Europe. Shortening that route is the fastest way for a carrier to free up ships it doesn’t otherwise have.”

“So capacity is returning to solve the carrier’s problem, not necessarily that of importers and exporters,” Marc notes. “That’s exactly why schedules are changing before rates do, and why they’re changing unevenly across carriers. Ships arriving earlier than planned are also converging on the same terminals. So don’t expect fewer vessels to arrive just because sea routes are shorter. What changes first is transit time. Plan for that shift before it happens; don’t wait for it,” Marc concludes.